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The US Dollar's post-FOMC tumble has fueled major breakouts in Gold and Silver, yet Bitcoin (BTC) is lagging significantly, struggling to hold the $90,000 level. We analyze the critical divergence between anti-fiat assets and break down the technical patterns that will dictate BTC's next move.

The market landscape shifted dramatically following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, sending the US Dollar to its back foot. While this development served as a strong catalyst for precious metals, Bitcoin's response has been conspicuously weak. After a brutal Q4 correction that saw BTC drop over 36% from its $125k high, the cryptocurrency is now grappling for stability.

This lag presents a critical question for traders: Is Bitcoin poised for a catch-up rally, or is its recent weakness a sign of deeper structural issues, as institutional money prioritizes Gold and Silver?

The Divergence: Anti-Fiat Assets Split

The classic inverse relationship between the USD and anti-fiat assets is usually clear, but post-FOMC, the correlation has broken down:

  • Precious Metals Surge: Both Gold and Silver immediately capitalized on the USD's weakness, pushing definitive breakouts and confirming strong bullish momentum, as lower U.S. interest rates immediately strengthen the appeal of non-yielding stores of value.
  • Bitcoin’s Struggle: The recovery in Bitcoin has been indecisive, failing to show strength proportional to the USD reversal. This is evident on the weekly chart where upper wicks on the past three candles highlight persistent selling pressure. The core problem is the $90,000 level, which BTC has had trouble holding above for any extended runs, indicating it is a major psychological hurdle.

Technical Breakdown: Two Paths Forward

The next few sessions will be dictated by whether bulls can defend the pattern of higher lows established since the push toward the $80k support zone.

Bullish Case: The Ascending Triangle

From the four-hour chart, a clear bullish structure has emerged: the ascending triangle formation. This classic pattern signals that buyers are stepping in at higher lows, repeatedly testing a fixed resistance level.

  • Resistance Breakout: The horizontal resistance for this formation sits at $93,961. A sustained break and close above this level would confirm the bullish pattern and signal a strong continuation.
  • Next Target: The immediate target after a confirmed breakout is the prior swing high at $99,939, which is just below the crucial psychological $100,000 mark.

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Bearish Risk: Failure to Launch

The core risk is that the fundamental strength driving metals fails to translate into sustained momentum for crypto.

  • Risk Zone: A failure to clear the $90,000 level decisively, particularly if the ascending triangle structure fails to hold, would expose the market to a retest of the low $$$88,000 band that has defined its December range.
  • Critical Support: A breakdown below the higher-low trendline exposes the ultimate support floor near $80,000.

Navigating the Divergence

For active traders, the divergence means risk must be managed tightly. Bitcoin is positioned at a pivotal juncture: either a sharp catch-up rally is imminent upon clearing $$$93,961, or continued weakness will confirm a prioritization of Metals over Crypto among anti-fiat investors.

Ready to capitalize on Bitcoin's next major move? Open an Account with KQ Markets today.

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