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US Futures are under pressure as weak Chinese trade data and renewed US-China tensions collide with deep uncertainty over the US Jobs Report and a potential Supreme Court tariff ruling. For traders, this is a day of extreme risk and opportunity. Here is your expert technical blueprint.

The global market mood is souring as key risk factors converge, sending US stock futures lower in the Asian session. Traders are battling a confluence of external economic weakness (China's exports) and domestic political uncertainty (Supreme Court and Senate). This high-stakes environment demands precision, with a focus on core technical support levels across key indices.

The China Shock: Trade Data and Tech Tensions

The primary catalyst for the Asian session's selling pressure was an unexpected and sharp fall in Chinese exports, which plunged 1.1% year-on-year in October, reversing September's strong 8.3% surge. This signals a deepening slump in global demand and weighed heavily on sentiment, pulling the Hang Seng Index down 1.14% and sending the Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures lower.

Adding to the friction are reports of the US planning to ban sales of Nvidia’s scaled-down AI chips to China. This comes less than 10 days after a trade agreement was reached, highlighting the high stakes of these tech tensions.

Domestic Uncertainty: Stagflation and Tariffs

Market sentiment is caught between growing fears of stagflation and a major Supreme Court ruling:

  1. Stagflation Risk: Weak US labor data (sharp increase in job cuts, softer wage growth) ahead of the delayed Jobs Report suggests a weak outcome. As the services sector deals with "surging prices and a weak labor market," stagflation pressures are building, potentially weighing on risk assets.
  2. Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: Speculation is rife that the US Supreme Court could rule President Trump’s tariffs illegal. A withdrawal of tariffs would be a massive deflationary event, lowering import costs, easing inflationary pressure, and raising bets on a December Fed rate cut. This could provide a huge boost to capital-intensive stocks.

The Technical Blueprint: Key Support Levels

Despite this week’s losses, US stock futures remain positioned above key long-term technical levels, suggesting the underlying bullish bias is still intact, but heavily tested. Near-term direction will be dictated by the Jobs Report and the Supreme Court ruling.

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones E-mini slipped 2 points and remains highly sensitive to Capitol Hill developments.

  • Resistance: Key resistance lies at 47,250 and 47,500, with the all-time high at 48,214 serving as the ultimate target.
  • Support: The immediate support is the psychological level of 47,000, with the crucial line in the sand being the 50-day EMA (46,550).
Dow Jones Daily Chart sends bullish price signals.

 

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 E-mini fell 17 points, reacting sharply to the Chinese tech friction and trade data.

  • Resistance: The primary levels to overcome are 25,500 and 26,000, aiming for the October 30 record high of 26,399.
  • Support: Immediate defense is at 25,000, followed by the highly critical 50-day EMA (24,907).

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart sends bullish price signals.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini dropped 3 points and faces a crucial test of its medium-term support.

  • Resistance: The October 30 record high of 6,954 remains the immediate hurdle, with the major psychological level at 7,000.
  • Support: The most important technical support is the 50-day EMA (6,698). A breach below this opens the door for a slide toward 6,500.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart sends bullish price signals.

Market Outlook: US Data and Capitol Hill

Traders brace for heightened volatility. Given the current market forces—the extended 37-day government shutdown, the looming Jobs Report, the potential Supreme Court ruling, and crucial Fed speeches—US stock futures remain exposed to further losses ahead of the US session.

Traders should monitor the Senate vote on the stopgap funding bill closely. Growing support for aggressive Fed rate cuts may counter concerns about stagflation, but caution is advised.

To stay ahead of these high-impact events, consult our economic calendar for real-time updates and follow our daily market news and analysis.

Ready to trade the volatility? Open an Account with KQ Markets today.

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